Sunday, March 12, 2006
Sony may be in trouble
Click here to read what may have been the most recent news story on the PlayStation 3 that actually spat out an optimistic outlook for Sony. Obviously, it's from 1up, but even they couldn't come up with a 100% positive spin. At least it predicts the PS3 will actually come out at some point. Right now, I'm not even sure it will ever see the light of day.
Ok, obviously at some point in the future there will be a system, developed by Sony, that is called the PlayStation 3. It could be a cardboard box full of naked pictures of Bea Arthur and it will still outsell the Xbox 360 in Japan. I just don't think there is any way the system that has been talked about for the last year - the PS3 with the boomerang controller, Cell chip and Blu Ray player - will ever actually see the light of day. Not in Spring of this year in Japan. Not Christmas in America. The system is just too darn expensive for Sony to actually expect to make a profit off of it.
What I don't understand is why Sony decided to take a completely different approach this generation. I guess you could say this all started with the PSP - Sony was terrified about fighting Nintendo in this arena, a company that essentially prints currency with their handheld line, so they decided to create a system more powerful than anyone imagined a portable can be. Have you played this system? It's ridiculous. The screen seems on par with those high definition plasma sets you find in rich people's homes. The speakers sound better than the fancy 5.1 system Nick just picked up. And the graphics are on par with current systems. It's unreal how powerful it is.
But it's expensive. And, even though it isn't necessarily hard to develop for (if you're a programmer; Nick and I tried making a God of War sequel for it, misspelled "God" and gave up), it does require a large amount of resources to get the most out of the system. Have you noticed the system is almost twice as expensive as the NDS with pricier games even though it has far less entertainment hours readily available? Obviously, the NDS is winning handily all over the world. As Sony proved during the last two generations, price coupled with a huge variety of games is what makes systems a success. All the bad marketing in the world can't give the PSP the two things it really needs.
This is not supposed to be a PSP article - though it's relevant since they are taking the same path with the PS3 - but the best games on the PSP are ones that barely even wake the system up. Games like Lumines and Exit are pure portable titles and are why this is a must own system. Why did Sony jam all those powerful chips in this tiny package if the best games were only going to use a fraction of that power?
Now Sony is trying the same strategy with the PS3, only on a much larger scale. They have been working with IBM for half a decade developing this fabled Cell chip. They have spent a ton of money in research and development and another ton building fabrication plants to churn out these chips. They are most likely spending a ton more on servers for their online system - an area they have only a fraction of the knowledge as their competitor MS does. And then there's the Blu Ray DVD player. They are trying to establish this as the new standard for home movies. This is what happens when you are more than a video game company: because the future of BR is so important to Sony (the only thing they actually make money on is the PlayStation line. They need something else as well), they are trying to cram it into their next console to ensure its place in people's homes.
The problem is, this will ramp up the cost of the PS3 considerably and offer no improvement in actual games. Blu Ray DVDs are also much more expensive to print, which means gamers may long for the days when they shelled out $70 for a limited edition version of Oblivion. Will this really fly?
The PS2 is the best system ever because it is dirt cheap and every developer in the world is making games for it. Since it's so easy to develop for and there are 100 million systems out there, developers are willing to try something different even if it only appeals to a minute audience. Games like Robot Alchemic Drive would most likely not exist if it wasn't for the PS2. Even if the game only sells 20,000 copies, Sandlot will still be able to make a profit because it is so cheap to develop. And Namco is willing to try something completely different with the fantastic Katamari Damacy. What if these things required 3 years of development time and fifty programmers? Would anyone risk making these super niche titles?
Even though Sony has secured rights to amazing 3rd party games like Metal Gear Solid and Devil May Cry, the thing that really pushes the PS2 is a glut of these cheap and really fun games. Regardless of what kind of games you're interested in, there are a ton of games under $20 you can buy on the PS2. If you doubt this theory allow me to present some evidence. I don't have final sales numbers, but this article mentions that Grand Theft Auto San Andreas sold about 2.5 million copies during its first month of release. Let's say it sold 10 million total, or even 30 million, that is still only a fraction of PS2 users. Even amazing, mainsteam PS2 games only sell about 5 million copies. There are 100 million PS2s out there. The reason it is such a huge success is because there are so many great games in different genres, not because of the huge titles that get all the hype.
But this doesn't look like it can happen on the PS3. Why is Sony ignoring the thing that put them in this position in the first place?
My prediction - Sony scraps the Blu Ray DVD completely and releases the PS3 worldwide this year. They are too smart to screw themselves over by forcing BR to people who don't even care about it.
By the way, this column is completely moot if Sony really does release a Massively Multiplayer Online War of the Monsters at launch. I've been spreading this rumor for a while now hoping Sony will catch on. Would not this be the best system seller of all time? How much money would you be willing to spend on this game alone? $600? $6,000? Get it done Sony.
Ok, obviously at some point in the future there will be a system, developed by Sony, that is called the PlayStation 3. It could be a cardboard box full of naked pictures of Bea Arthur and it will still outsell the Xbox 360 in Japan. I just don't think there is any way the system that has been talked about for the last year - the PS3 with the boomerang controller, Cell chip and Blu Ray player - will ever actually see the light of day. Not in Spring of this year in Japan. Not Christmas in America. The system is just too darn expensive for Sony to actually expect to make a profit off of it.
What I don't understand is why Sony decided to take a completely different approach this generation. I guess you could say this all started with the PSP - Sony was terrified about fighting Nintendo in this arena, a company that essentially prints currency with their handheld line, so they decided to create a system more powerful than anyone imagined a portable can be. Have you played this system? It's ridiculous. The screen seems on par with those high definition plasma sets you find in rich people's homes. The speakers sound better than the fancy 5.1 system Nick just picked up. And the graphics are on par with current systems. It's unreal how powerful it is.
But it's expensive. And, even though it isn't necessarily hard to develop for (if you're a programmer; Nick and I tried making a God of War sequel for it, misspelled "God" and gave up), it does require a large amount of resources to get the most out of the system. Have you noticed the system is almost twice as expensive as the NDS with pricier games even though it has far less entertainment hours readily available? Obviously, the NDS is winning handily all over the world. As Sony proved during the last two generations, price coupled with a huge variety of games is what makes systems a success. All the bad marketing in the world can't give the PSP the two things it really needs.
This is not supposed to be a PSP article - though it's relevant since they are taking the same path with the PS3 - but the best games on the PSP are ones that barely even wake the system up. Games like Lumines and Exit are pure portable titles and are why this is a must own system. Why did Sony jam all those powerful chips in this tiny package if the best games were only going to use a fraction of that power?
Now Sony is trying the same strategy with the PS3, only on a much larger scale. They have been working with IBM for half a decade developing this fabled Cell chip. They have spent a ton of money in research and development and another ton building fabrication plants to churn out these chips. They are most likely spending a ton more on servers for their online system - an area they have only a fraction of the knowledge as their competitor MS does. And then there's the Blu Ray DVD player. They are trying to establish this as the new standard for home movies. This is what happens when you are more than a video game company: because the future of BR is so important to Sony (the only thing they actually make money on is the PlayStation line. They need something else as well), they are trying to cram it into their next console to ensure its place in people's homes.
The problem is, this will ramp up the cost of the PS3 considerably and offer no improvement in actual games. Blu Ray DVDs are also much more expensive to print, which means gamers may long for the days when they shelled out $70 for a limited edition version of Oblivion. Will this really fly?
The PS2 is the best system ever because it is dirt cheap and every developer in the world is making games for it. Since it's so easy to develop for and there are 100 million systems out there, developers are willing to try something different even if it only appeals to a minute audience. Games like Robot Alchemic Drive would most likely not exist if it wasn't for the PS2. Even if the game only sells 20,000 copies, Sandlot will still be able to make a profit because it is so cheap to develop. And Namco is willing to try something completely different with the fantastic Katamari Damacy. What if these things required 3 years of development time and fifty programmers? Would anyone risk making these super niche titles?
Even though Sony has secured rights to amazing 3rd party games like Metal Gear Solid and Devil May Cry, the thing that really pushes the PS2 is a glut of these cheap and really fun games. Regardless of what kind of games you're interested in, there are a ton of games under $20 you can buy on the PS2. If you doubt this theory allow me to present some evidence. I don't have final sales numbers, but this article mentions that Grand Theft Auto San Andreas sold about 2.5 million copies during its first month of release. Let's say it sold 10 million total, or even 30 million, that is still only a fraction of PS2 users. Even amazing, mainsteam PS2 games only sell about 5 million copies. There are 100 million PS2s out there. The reason it is such a huge success is because there are so many great games in different genres, not because of the huge titles that get all the hype.
But this doesn't look like it can happen on the PS3. Why is Sony ignoring the thing that put them in this position in the first place?
My prediction - Sony scraps the Blu Ray DVD completely and releases the PS3 worldwide this year. They are too smart to screw themselves over by forcing BR to people who don't even care about it.
By the way, this column is completely moot if Sony really does release a Massively Multiplayer Online War of the Monsters at launch. I've been spreading this rumor for a while now hoping Sony will catch on. Would not this be the best system seller of all time? How much money would you be willing to spend on this game alone? $600? $6,000? Get it done Sony.
// posted by Tom @ 9:39 AM 
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