Friday, March 03, 2006
OH. MY. GOD.
I don't want to take away from Greg's great article, but this HAS to be posted. Just read, and laugh, and cry, and love this industry as much as I do.
Guest Column - Awfully quiet at Sony these days
I've always attributed several things to the demise of my beloved Dreamcast. The enormous financial hole Sega found themselves in after the debacle that was the Saturn in the U.S. and the complete lack of EA support were probably the biggest contributors. I would personally add to that pile the announcement of the Playstation 2. The promise of the Emotion Engine and Toy Story quality graphics kept many people waiting for what was certain to be the next big thing. See if any of this sounds familiar. Was Sega really going to be as tough a competitor as Nintendo or Microsoft? Sadly, we'll never know if the market could have supported four consoles (most didn't think it could support three).
It's awfully quiet as Sony these days. While they are generally a much more secretive company than, say, Microsoft, I ca't remember when they've been so quiet about something this big. Even Microsoft knew to tease us with little tidbits of Halo 2 info for a good two years - it was something. Nintendo has been teasing us since last E3 about Revolution with a centerpiece consisting of a Gamcube game that uses Rev technology and the promise of a new way to play, and they've shown decidedly less software. We know that E3 will at least give us something, Nintendo has promised us that. Microsoft, meanwhile, could have easily shot itself in the collective foot throughout the launch of the 360 with a severe lack of games that looked next-gen and a lack of hardware, not to mention all of the negative reports of bum systems that the mainstream press were crying over. That may also all be quickly forgotten as we close in on the one-two punch of the recently golden Ghost Recon and Oblivion.
Suddenly it seems even quieter over at Sony. The last truly exciting info we got was a beautiful MGS4 trailer at TGS...last fall. The (empty box) hardware was shown more recently at CES behind glass, sans boomerang controller, with the same videos from TGS. This is supposed to be the most powerful piece of gaming hardware ever devised by human hands. This is the box that is supposed to deliver Killzone 2 to our greedy hands. This is the box that plants both its shiny new Cell processor and spectacular Blu-Ray technology into millions of homes that wouldn't normally care about those sorts of things. Tell me something, Sony, anything!!!
Sony is the market leader, and as Tom pointed out, they can get away with murder. They can advertise the Playstation 9 instead of the Playstation 2 that was actually available and still sell millions. If they can get away with showing us "target video" of games that didn't really exist yet, why can't they just hold a press conference tomorrow where Kaz walks out and says "Playstation 3 will rock your ass like Judas Priest. Don't waste your money on Xbox or Revolution. Your friends will laugh at you, and your parents will think you are weal." How many fence-sitters who are starting to lean towards GRAW in a week would instantly stop and say "You know, he's right, I'll wait however long it takes for my beloved, manly PS3!" As wrong as I think it is, they don't really need to show anything real. They're Sony. It's the next Playstation. Shouldn't they at least be TALKING it up right about now though?
There are rumors flying left and right about how much PS3s cost to produce, how much they will charge at retail, and whether it will actually launch in the vaguely defined "Spring 06" window. Sony still hasn't said a word. Not that they need to respond to every rumor that's let loose, but some reassurance that the sleeping giant knows that two tiny giant-killers are quickly tying his shoelaces together would be nice. As it is Sony seems very unsure about something. I couldn't begin to guess at what...okay, I can:
First, I don't think that they know how to price it yet. Sure, all of that technology in the box is expensive, but most of it actually belongs to Sony, so I would guess that their actual cost is much lower than what the press are reporting right now. Part of their pricing strategy with the relatively expensive PSP was to give the appearance that it was for adults who had jobs, not their little brothers. Microsoft, in a deft move, has broken the $399 initial price point, leaving the door wide open for Sony. A more powerful PS3 at $450 would seem like a steal. But, does Sony price it just a little bit higher both to give the illusion of value as well as reduce the hit they take on every box? How much of a hit can they really afford to taker if Blu-Ray flies as quickly into a wall as Betamax, Minidisc and UMD?
Second, where are the games? No, I mean the real, playable games. I buy that MGS4 was game engine, but so was the Halo 2 teaser. Unreal Tournament 2007 falls into the argument as Gears of War as far as the Unreal 3 engine running easily on both systems. Are they nervous that they might take the same kind of beating in the press that Microsoft took when they showed all those "one-third power" games running in real time at E3? Or are the worse off for having promised us Killzone 2 last year and not being able to deliver anything close to it now? Fight Night looked great last year - every bit as good as it looks this year with a 360 controller in hand.
Third, are they just trying to shore it all up in an attempt to trump Nintendo? Nintendo are in the enviable position of having shown practically nothing, telling us not to expect too much graphically in comparison to the other two next-gen consoles, but promising all manner of surprises at E3. And to anyone who doubts that they can sell that silly-looking controller to the masses, I point at Nintendogs. To the hardcore I point at Trauma Center. Yes, what was supposed to have been the next Virtual Boy, had a KILLER software lineup last fall, and neither Animal Crossing nor Mario Kart needed the touch screen to be instantly addictive. I digress. If Sony starts talking now, will they show their hand too much, effectively letting Nintendo steal the show at E3? Does everybody walk away talking about the Revolution? Going back to the pricing problem, if they sell PS3s for $450 and Nintendo sells Revs for $250 with cheaper (and assumedly easier to produce in larger quantities) components, might the Japanese stop and think that one over a little?
Finally, did Microsoft really push them into a corner by launching the next-gen when they did? Is Sony just not ready? Sony would most certainly have been in no hurry to present the wildly popular PS2's successor had Microsoft not moved when they did. Did Bill Gates force them to move before they wanted to? How much better would Shadow of the Colossus have sold if it had been more of a centerpiece in Sony's presentation instead of showing all of those "target videos"?
A question comes to mind - would you prefer that Sony just drops the thing when they said that they would, with potentially lackluster games that don't look as good as the videos from last year? Or would you rather they wait and drop it when they have the games that will truly blow you away? As a gamer I'd rather wait and get the great games; most of us hardcore nerds are going to buy all three eventually anyways. The problem is, they have to launch this year, ready or not. If they give Microsoft another free holiday season in the U.S., presumably with exponentially more systems available, and Nintendo a head start in Japan, they're looking at an uphill climb in both territories (especially when the words 'price drop' start coming into play around the time of a PS3 launch). Heaven forbid Microsoft actually comes up with some kind of killer app for 360 in Japan without the PS3 there to combat it. As outlandish as it may seem to any sane person, the beginning of the end for Sony's world dominance is an honest foothold in Japan for Microsoft. The truth is that the 360 is buried in Japan the moment the PS3 drops, although it seems to be burying itself without Sony's help.
All of this goes way if Sony just saying something. Anything. Hideo says "PS3 makes your chocolate ice cream taste better." Jaffe says "Blah, blah, PS3, blah, sex and blood." Will it shut down 360 and steal all of the Revolutions hype? No. Will it go a long way towards making Sony at least appear to still be in a position of strength? Yes. Will common consumers who are as yet undecided on 360 versus PS3 wait longer just to get the PS3? Not all of them, but I'd be a lot of them would. There's still a new Madden between now and then, what's the rush?
Written by Greg. Thanks Greg!
It's awfully quiet as Sony these days. While they are generally a much more secretive company than, say, Microsoft, I ca't remember when they've been so quiet about something this big. Even Microsoft knew to tease us with little tidbits of Halo 2 info for a good two years - it was something. Nintendo has been teasing us since last E3 about Revolution with a centerpiece consisting of a Gamcube game that uses Rev technology and the promise of a new way to play, and they've shown decidedly less software. We know that E3 will at least give us something, Nintendo has promised us that. Microsoft, meanwhile, could have easily shot itself in the collective foot throughout the launch of the 360 with a severe lack of games that looked next-gen and a lack of hardware, not to mention all of the negative reports of bum systems that the mainstream press were crying over. That may also all be quickly forgotten as we close in on the one-two punch of the recently golden Ghost Recon and Oblivion.
Suddenly it seems even quieter over at Sony. The last truly exciting info we got was a beautiful MGS4 trailer at TGS...last fall. The (empty box) hardware was shown more recently at CES behind glass, sans boomerang controller, with the same videos from TGS. This is supposed to be the most powerful piece of gaming hardware ever devised by human hands. This is the box that is supposed to deliver Killzone 2 to our greedy hands. This is the box that plants both its shiny new Cell processor and spectacular Blu-Ray technology into millions of homes that wouldn't normally care about those sorts of things. Tell me something, Sony, anything!!!
Sony is the market leader, and as Tom pointed out, they can get away with murder. They can advertise the Playstation 9 instead of the Playstation 2 that was actually available and still sell millions. If they can get away with showing us "target video" of games that didn't really exist yet, why can't they just hold a press conference tomorrow where Kaz walks out and says "Playstation 3 will rock your ass like Judas Priest. Don't waste your money on Xbox or Revolution. Your friends will laugh at you, and your parents will think you are weal." How many fence-sitters who are starting to lean towards GRAW in a week would instantly stop and say "You know, he's right, I'll wait however long it takes for my beloved, manly PS3!" As wrong as I think it is, they don't really need to show anything real. They're Sony. It's the next Playstation. Shouldn't they at least be TALKING it up right about now though?
There are rumors flying left and right about how much PS3s cost to produce, how much they will charge at retail, and whether it will actually launch in the vaguely defined "Spring 06" window. Sony still hasn't said a word. Not that they need to respond to every rumor that's let loose, but some reassurance that the sleeping giant knows that two tiny giant-killers are quickly tying his shoelaces together would be nice. As it is Sony seems very unsure about something. I couldn't begin to guess at what...okay, I can:
First, I don't think that they know how to price it yet. Sure, all of that technology in the box is expensive, but most of it actually belongs to Sony, so I would guess that their actual cost is much lower than what the press are reporting right now. Part of their pricing strategy with the relatively expensive PSP was to give the appearance that it was for adults who had jobs, not their little brothers. Microsoft, in a deft move, has broken the $399 initial price point, leaving the door wide open for Sony. A more powerful PS3 at $450 would seem like a steal. But, does Sony price it just a little bit higher both to give the illusion of value as well as reduce the hit they take on every box? How much of a hit can they really afford to taker if Blu-Ray flies as quickly into a wall as Betamax, Minidisc and UMD?
Second, where are the games? No, I mean the real, playable games. I buy that MGS4 was game engine, but so was the Halo 2 teaser. Unreal Tournament 2007 falls into the argument as Gears of War as far as the Unreal 3 engine running easily on both systems. Are they nervous that they might take the same kind of beating in the press that Microsoft took when they showed all those "one-third power" games running in real time at E3? Or are the worse off for having promised us Killzone 2 last year and not being able to deliver anything close to it now? Fight Night looked great last year - every bit as good as it looks this year with a 360 controller in hand.
Third, are they just trying to shore it all up in an attempt to trump Nintendo? Nintendo are in the enviable position of having shown practically nothing, telling us not to expect too much graphically in comparison to the other two next-gen consoles, but promising all manner of surprises at E3. And to anyone who doubts that they can sell that silly-looking controller to the masses, I point at Nintendogs. To the hardcore I point at Trauma Center. Yes, what was supposed to have been the next Virtual Boy, had a KILLER software lineup last fall, and neither Animal Crossing nor Mario Kart needed the touch screen to be instantly addictive. I digress. If Sony starts talking now, will they show their hand too much, effectively letting Nintendo steal the show at E3? Does everybody walk away talking about the Revolution? Going back to the pricing problem, if they sell PS3s for $450 and Nintendo sells Revs for $250 with cheaper (and assumedly easier to produce in larger quantities) components, might the Japanese stop and think that one over a little?
Finally, did Microsoft really push them into a corner by launching the next-gen when they did? Is Sony just not ready? Sony would most certainly have been in no hurry to present the wildly popular PS2's successor had Microsoft not moved when they did. Did Bill Gates force them to move before they wanted to? How much better would Shadow of the Colossus have sold if it had been more of a centerpiece in Sony's presentation instead of showing all of those "target videos"?
A question comes to mind - would you prefer that Sony just drops the thing when they said that they would, with potentially lackluster games that don't look as good as the videos from last year? Or would you rather they wait and drop it when they have the games that will truly blow you away? As a gamer I'd rather wait and get the great games; most of us hardcore nerds are going to buy all three eventually anyways. The problem is, they have to launch this year, ready or not. If they give Microsoft another free holiday season in the U.S., presumably with exponentially more systems available, and Nintendo a head start in Japan, they're looking at an uphill climb in both territories (especially when the words 'price drop' start coming into play around the time of a PS3 launch). Heaven forbid Microsoft actually comes up with some kind of killer app for 360 in Japan without the PS3 there to combat it. As outlandish as it may seem to any sane person, the beginning of the end for Sony's world dominance is an honest foothold in Japan for Microsoft. The truth is that the 360 is buried in Japan the moment the PS3 drops, although it seems to be burying itself without Sony's help.
All of this goes way if Sony just saying something. Anything. Hideo says "PS3 makes your chocolate ice cream taste better." Jaffe says "Blah, blah, PS3, blah, sex and blood." Will it shut down 360 and steal all of the Revolutions hype? No. Will it go a long way towards making Sony at least appear to still be in a position of strength? Yes. Will common consumers who are as yet undecided on 360 versus PS3 wait longer just to get the PS3? Not all of them, but I'd be a lot of them would. There's still a new Madden between now and then, what's the rush?
Written by Greg. Thanks Greg!
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