Monday, April 25, 2005
Shaking all over
It's so close I can almost taste it. Of course, I can't even imagine what it will end up tasting like nor do I have any clue how its taste will eventually change my life and the lives of those around me. However, I know that in a relatively short period of time, the pleasure of tasting its... what the heck am I rambling about anyway? I'm getting the shakes for Perfect Dark Zero in a bad way and, as I desperately searched my brain for a way in which to relieve the many thoughts spiraling around my head, I thought back to my land of blind hope: G-Pinions. I don't have any new information to give regarding the next Rare FPS masterpiece since they haven't released any information on the title, aside from the name, in the five years it has been in development. But just because there is no information doesn't mean I'm going to simply not write about it.
Perfect Dark Zero is the most important game Rare will ever release. I know that such a statement seems ludicrous when you look back at the fabled history of this company - who once created a game so advanced (Blackwyche) they shelved it for a year to create a prequel (Sabrewulf) that would ease gamers into the experience - but Rare is a completely different company now.
For all intents and purposes, if Perfect Dark Zero turns out to be a great title, it alone will be worth the $300,000,000 Microsoft paid Nintendo for Rare. There are only a handful of developers in the world worth that much cash. Even I, the biggest Rare fan left, had to laugh at the ridiculous sum Nintendo got Microsoft to shell out. As good as they have been through the years; Rare has far more niche hits in their library than blockbuster sellers. As far as systems sellers go, the only reason you would actually pay that much money for a company, Goldeneye is the only game they have ever made that would achieve such a high status. As stupid as it still seems, the entire investment will be worth it if Perfect Dark Zero is as great as it should be.
By releasing a full year ahead of their competition, the Xbox 2 has plenty of time to build up a library and establish itself as a legitimate threat. However, coming out early with a solid lineup in no way ensures success in the console world. I don't want to bring up the Dreamcast again, but even with a ton of great games available from the onset, gamers were so preoccupied by the promise of what the PS2 would deliver they spent a year playing PSX titles instead of taking the plunge with the Dreamcast. This is still a very real problem that Microsoft has to deal with. Why should gamers shell out $300 now when they have a perfectly fine PS2 and Gamecube and brand new systems on the horizon?
Even with a next generation Madden and six racing games at launch, Microsoft will not be able to convince the average gamer to shell out the mad cash to upgrade for better graphics. Not even the most easily impressionable casual gamer will want to spend that much money to play the new Project Gothem Racing. But if the wicked success of Halo has taught us anything, nothing puts a company on the map quite like a great first person shooter. If you don't think Microsoft has been planning this release long before the dotted line was signed on Rare's fate almost three years ago, you have a lot to learn about planning. Bungie is one of the most talented companies in the world, but they are also ridiculously small. If you push them to the very limits of their abilities they will be able to release one game every two years. Not a very high rate of games, but when you factor in how amazing every game they release is, Bungie is worth much more than MS paid to acquire them.
But Rare is completely different. They are a huge company with no less than five games in development at all times. It takes them forever to actually get a title out the door, but with a strict schedule they can get a new game out every six to twelve months. They did release eleven games on the N64 with an average Gamerankings rating of 86.4%. The talent is clearly not an issue.
If Perfect Dark Zero lives up to the hype (the G-Pinions hype since on one else is talking about it now...) it will sell systems. It will sell many, many systems. In fact, word is MS is trying to ship between 3 and 5 million Xbox 2 by the end of this year. If those systems sell you can bet that the majority of them will be bought with the expressed purpose of playing PDZ. Microsoft will push PDZ to be the next Halo: CE. How many people do you know who own an Xbox and don't own Halo?
If PDZ truly is a great game and MS can convince the world one more time that they need a new FPS, there might be as many as 10 million next generation Xboxes out there by the time the PS3 ships a year later. That is an awful of systems. And, if the rumors are true, they are going to release Halo 3 the same day the PS3 comes out. With ten million happy customers already, it could be very hard for Sony to convince people to spend $300 more dollars for a PS3 when they could just spend $50 for a system they already own and get the next Halo title. Microsoft does not expect to win this war as easily as Sony overthrew Nintendo a decade ago, but they fully expect to be able to compete. The easiest way they can do that is to ride PDZ as far as they can and let Halo 3 do the rest. If Rare can regain their N64 form and MS can continue to build contacts in the industry, I honestly would not be surprised if they surpass Sony next generation.
I realize I am risking my reputation, whatever that entails, by going on and on about PDZ long before any details have actually surfaced. You could just say that I am really that confident in Rare's abilities that they can go four years without a great game released and I still have hope that their next title will, once again, blow me away. If I'm wrong feel free to rip me until I'm merely a shell of my former self. But if I'm right, and you know I will be, the greatest reward of all will be losing myself in a Rare game one more time.
Perfect Dark Zero is the most important game Rare will ever release. I know that such a statement seems ludicrous when you look back at the fabled history of this company - who once created a game so advanced (Blackwyche) they shelved it for a year to create a prequel (Sabrewulf) that would ease gamers into the experience - but Rare is a completely different company now.
For all intents and purposes, if Perfect Dark Zero turns out to be a great title, it alone will be worth the $300,000,000 Microsoft paid Nintendo for Rare. There are only a handful of developers in the world worth that much cash. Even I, the biggest Rare fan left, had to laugh at the ridiculous sum Nintendo got Microsoft to shell out. As good as they have been through the years; Rare has far more niche hits in their library than blockbuster sellers. As far as systems sellers go, the only reason you would actually pay that much money for a company, Goldeneye is the only game they have ever made that would achieve such a high status. As stupid as it still seems, the entire investment will be worth it if Perfect Dark Zero is as great as it should be.
By releasing a full year ahead of their competition, the Xbox 2 has plenty of time to build up a library and establish itself as a legitimate threat. However, coming out early with a solid lineup in no way ensures success in the console world. I don't want to bring up the Dreamcast again, but even with a ton of great games available from the onset, gamers were so preoccupied by the promise of what the PS2 would deliver they spent a year playing PSX titles instead of taking the plunge with the Dreamcast. This is still a very real problem that Microsoft has to deal with. Why should gamers shell out $300 now when they have a perfectly fine PS2 and Gamecube and brand new systems on the horizon?
Even with a next generation Madden and six racing games at launch, Microsoft will not be able to convince the average gamer to shell out the mad cash to upgrade for better graphics. Not even the most easily impressionable casual gamer will want to spend that much money to play the new Project Gothem Racing. But if the wicked success of Halo has taught us anything, nothing puts a company on the map quite like a great first person shooter. If you don't think Microsoft has been planning this release long before the dotted line was signed on Rare's fate almost three years ago, you have a lot to learn about planning. Bungie is one of the most talented companies in the world, but they are also ridiculously small. If you push them to the very limits of their abilities they will be able to release one game every two years. Not a very high rate of games, but when you factor in how amazing every game they release is, Bungie is worth much more than MS paid to acquire them.
But Rare is completely different. They are a huge company with no less than five games in development at all times. It takes them forever to actually get a title out the door, but with a strict schedule they can get a new game out every six to twelve months. They did release eleven games on the N64 with an average Gamerankings rating of 86.4%. The talent is clearly not an issue.
If Perfect Dark Zero lives up to the hype (the G-Pinions hype since on one else is talking about it now...) it will sell systems. It will sell many, many systems. In fact, word is MS is trying to ship between 3 and 5 million Xbox 2 by the end of this year. If those systems sell you can bet that the majority of them will be bought with the expressed purpose of playing PDZ. Microsoft will push PDZ to be the next Halo: CE. How many people do you know who own an Xbox and don't own Halo?
If PDZ truly is a great game and MS can convince the world one more time that they need a new FPS, there might be as many as 10 million next generation Xboxes out there by the time the PS3 ships a year later. That is an awful of systems. And, if the rumors are true, they are going to release Halo 3 the same day the PS3 comes out. With ten million happy customers already, it could be very hard for Sony to convince people to spend $300 more dollars for a PS3 when they could just spend $50 for a system they already own and get the next Halo title. Microsoft does not expect to win this war as easily as Sony overthrew Nintendo a decade ago, but they fully expect to be able to compete. The easiest way they can do that is to ride PDZ as far as they can and let Halo 3 do the rest. If Rare can regain their N64 form and MS can continue to build contacts in the industry, I honestly would not be surprised if they surpass Sony next generation.
I realize I am risking my reputation, whatever that entails, by going on and on about PDZ long before any details have actually surfaced. You could just say that I am really that confident in Rare's abilities that they can go four years without a great game released and I still have hope that their next title will, once again, blow me away. If I'm wrong feel free to rip me until I'm merely a shell of my former self. But if I'm right, and you know I will be, the greatest reward of all will be losing myself in a Rare game one more time.
// posted by Tom @ 8:57 AM 
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