G-pinions

Not that it's by any means official, but there's a nice story online written by a guy who seemingly knows someone who knows someone who took someone hostage who knows some details of the Xbox2 launch. At the least, it's a solid summary of rumors and speculative truths, and is for the most part fairly believable.

A fall 2005 launch with Perfect Dark Zero as the big game? Yeah, it adds up. Microsoft didn't obtain Rare for nothing, as this current generation would have you believe. Yes, they'll probably have some trouble marketing a female for a main character without some more revealing clothing, and yes, the Goldeneye name isn't quite what it used to be. Though I would imagine their main problem would be name recognition - just when they've nailed down Halo as the game associated with the Xbox, they have the rather large task of making the gaming public aware of a franchise that's entirely new to most of them, and getting them insanely excited about it.

And what about Bungie's next game? This dude seems to think that Halo 3 will launch in 2006 to compete with the Playstation3 (assumably at it's launch). This is obviously quite feasible, but for some reason I just don't see it happening. I think that Bungie's next game will be something other than Halo 3, and that the series won't make another appearance for quite a while. They haven't been a company that rests on it's laurels in the past, and while the series is guaranteed money at this point, I imagine they'd rather do something more ambitious with freshly-acquired technology. Call me crazy, but I envision a Halo side-project (The Covenant Chronicles?) being handed over to a smaller studio (or even Wideload games, dare I say?) while Bungie sets their sights on something epic. As well-received as Halo 2 was, I still get the feeling that they were rushed into ill-completion of a grander idea again. Of course, Microsoft will have the final say in all this, but I like my idea better than what will probably happen.

Back to the actual hardware launch, I think it's probably a good time for it, especially if we'll see a PS3 in late 2006. Timing certainly helped Sony the last time around, and though they could certainly hold off another couple of seasons it will probably help Microsoft too. It will just be weird seeing games released on PS2, Xbox and Xbox2 (I'm sure PS1 will see a new Madden too at the least). Things like Battlefield: Modern Combat are scheduled for all three, and I don't see the general Xbox crowd as people who'll stand to buy a graphically inferior game when a better one exists. I'll be interested to see how MS goes about it, but they have been shockingly good at managing things so far.

So let's look at this speculated/supposedly informed launch lineup of sorts (again, from xblgamers.com):

Perfect Dark Zero
Project Gotham Racing 3
Madden 2006
ESPN Football 2K6
Amped 3
Half-Life 2
NASCAR Race For The Cup 2006
NBA Live 2006
ESPN NBA 2K6
Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (Based on the new movie)
Mission Impossible (Based on the new movie)
King Kong (Based on the new movie)
Star Wars game
Fighting Game (DOA4?)
Fighting Game (KI3?)
Unknown RPG (Not Oblivion)
Climax's Shooter

Now let's take out all of the sports/racing titles (because they're nothing exciting or new), the second fighting game (because they won't have two), and the unknown RPG (too vague, for now). What are we left with?

Perfect Dark Zero
Half-Life 2
Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (Based on the new movie)
Mission Impossible (Based on the new movie)
King Kong (Based on the new movie)
Star Wars game
Fighting Game (DOA4?)
Climax's Shooter

Ah, now we can analyze this properly. Will anyone care about Half-Life 2 a year after it's release? Possibly, but not if PD0 is as good as it should be. Same goes for Climax's shooter, whatever it may be. As for all these licensed titles, while they may be good (especially King Kong, from UbiSoft), they won't be exclusive. So what's the core now, the stuff that will start them out right or on the path to hell?

Perfect Dark Zero
Fighting Game (DOA4?)

Still not too shabby. It's no Mario 64, but it's certainly better than SSX (while great, it's now obsolete) being your best launch title. Also, I'm assuming that this is indeed DOA4 we're talking about. Sony will surely have some great stuff out next fall to keep as many eyes as possible on their system, which is why MS needs to show people that the next generation really can offer something entirely different. PD0 won't make as big a splash if you can do most of the same things in Killzone 2. That's obviously an unlikely scenario, but it's something to keep in mind. Better graphics can and will sell systems, but showing promise of amazing things to come will keep them moving.

As I said, they could have waited it out a bit longer. Ninja Gaiden 2 could have competed with FFXII and the new Zelda next fall, but I guess we won't see it play out anything like that. It's a good move to beat everyone to the punch, they just better have their shit together when the time comes.